Gradual expansion during the uncertainty in the first half of 2024

According to the Eurofinas Biannual Survey 2024, European consumer credit providers, represented through Eurofinas, issued €235 billion in new loans in the first half of 2024, reflecting modest growth of 0.4% compared to the same period in 2023. Total new consumer credit lending, which makes up 73% of Eurofinas’ new lending, saw a 1.5% increase.

The positive momentum in the consumer credit market was primarily driven by 2.8% growth of loans for personal consumption, while industrial credit led the decline in other lending types at -13.3%. Within other lending types, business vehicle finance was the only category that saw positive performances with growth rates of 9.2%.

During the first half of 2024, personal consumption accounted for 72% of new consumer credit, distributed as 31% in revolving credit, 29% in personal loans, and 12% in credit at POS. The remaining 28% of new consumer finance was dedicated to vehicle purchases, with 16% allocated to used cars, 10% to new cars, and 2% to other vehicles (including caravans and motorcycles).

Most markets recorded growth in new consumer credit granted, while France, Spain, Norway, and Denmark showed a decline.

The EU economy began its recovery in early 2024 following a prolonged period of stagnation, with inflation easing across the regions during the first quarter. However, the rise in real household income has not translated into increased private consumption; instead, it has led to higher saving rates due to continued uncertainty, with these additional savings not bolstering investment in Europe. In 2024, wage and employment growth will help lift disposable income, yet an increase in the saving rate to 14.4% is expected to limit private consumption growth to 1.3%, still below the usual trend. Looking ahead to 2025, real disposable income is forecasted to strengthen, and declining interest rates may reduce the incentive to save, likely driving more sustained consumption growth of 1.7% across the EU